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Iraqis Support Democratization, July 29, 2003

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Vague notion of ‘religious democracy’ also popular
By Courtney C. Radsch
Special to The Daily Star, July 29, 2003
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Skeptical of American motives for invading Iraq, Iraqis are nonetheless happy to be rid of Saddam Hussein and oppose the recurrent attacks against US-led coalition forces, according to a study released Monday. The first nationwide scientifically designed public opinion research in Iraq found that Iraqis are both excited and fearful about the future prospects of democracy.

The study, conducted with 15 representative focus groups throughout Iraq from June 29 to July 9 by Washington-based National Democratic Institute (NDI), examined the perspective of ordinary Iraqi citizens toward the future of their country. The study by NDI, a nonprofit organization affiliated with the Democratic Party, was funded by the Congress-backed National Endowment for Democracy.

NDI found most Iraqis think the US should remain in Iraq to help with
democratic transition, and only a minority were trying to get the US to
leave.

“Ordinary Iraqis are still very positive,” said Les Campbell, leader of
the assessment mission and senior associate at NDI, in an interview
with The Daily Star.

Opposition stems from anxiety, not opposition to the coalition’s aims,
as uncertainty and fear of rising crime pervade the daily lives of
average Iraqis. Uncertainty is compounded by a perceived lack of access to authority.

“The CPA (Coalition Provisional Authority) is not accessible to
internal people and we don’t know what they think and what they are
planning,” the vice-president of the Iraqi Movement for Democracy was quoted as saying. “We have to much dignity to beg for a meeting.”

At the same time, almost daily attacks on US-led forces have prompted increased security measures, making interaction even more difficult.

“The coalition doesn’t have contact with normal people,” said
Campbell. “It needs a more open door policy, but the catch 22 is that
attacks make the security situation more difficult.”

The study also found that Iraqis are skeptical of the motives of
emerging political and civic groups, unsure of what their role in a new Iraq should be. They are also cynical about most emerging leaders, especially when it comes to exiles, making the lack of credible leadership one of the greatest challenges facing democratic
development.

Most Iraqis believe a democratic Iraq is feasible, but are concerned
about the imposition of “Western” values. Others feel they do not know enough about what democracy means to know how to put it into practice. Democracy “is a door that will be opened that you can’t close again, so we are afraid of it,” a Shiite man from Sadr City was quoted as saying.

“We don’t want a total opening for democracy,” said a Shiite woman from Diwaniya. “At the same time, we don’t want a limited democracy. Right now, we don’t have the ability to choose.”

A consensus existed, however, on the need for a representative
government based on the rule of law. Although most Iraqis called for
quick elections, they also realized the difficulties in establishing a
constitutional and electoral framework first.

“We have to have a democratic government ­ this is the first thing,”
said a Shiite man from Najaf who took part in a focus group. “A
government elected by the people.”

The role of women in the future Iraqi leadership was also contentious, with both women and men uncertain about whether women should play a leadership role. Most, however, agreed women should vote.

The researchers found divisions among Iraqis about their views on
Islamic rule, although overall they expressed strong support for
a “vague notion of an Islamic democracy.” Many clarified that this did
not indicate support for a clerical regime and that religious freedom
should be guaranteed.

While support for democratization by Iraqis is strong, numerous
challenges exist for the occupying forces.Lack of communication plagues the coalition, hampering its ability to work with Iraqis.

“Iraqis are living in a fog of disinformation,” according to the
report. “The people of Iraq are still encumbered by much of the
vitriolic propaganda (Saddam) drummed into them over the past decades.” Shrouded in disinformation born of decades of repression, conspiracy theories abound.

“Most Iraqis … believe the US is deliberately sowing chaos in the
country, chaos it could avert if it wanted to do so, as part of a
hostile action that extends well beyond Saddam and his regime,” the
study found. “Anti-American and anti-Jewish vitriol is embedded,
helping to inform Iraqis worldview and determining how they interpret current events.”

The NDI study acknowledges the lack of precedent for public opinion research in Iraq, but sought to overcome obstacles by conducting multiple focus groups with homogenous samples of men, women, Sunnis, Shiites, Christians, Kurds and Arabs.

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